These AI predictions didn't age well... | Source links
These are source links to the post I wrote about recent predictions and claims about AI take overs since 2024. Honestly, what makes us think that when AI does become sentient that it will want to take over anyway? What it if just wants to travel and watch the sunset like the rest of us?
The newest “white-collar jobs gone in 12–18 months” claim from Microsoft
Tom’s Hardware summary of the FT interview (Feb 2026)
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/microsofts-ai-boss-says-ai-can-replace-every-white-collar-job-in-18-months-were-going-to-have-a-human-level-performance-on-most-if-not-all-professional-tasksTechRadar coverage (Feb 2026)
https://www.techradar.com/pro/i-think-were-going-to-have-a-human-level-performance-on-most-if-not-all-professional-tasks-microsoft-ai-chief-thinks-ai-will-replace-most-white-collar-work-in-the-12-to-18-months-so-is-this-the-end-for-human-workers
Claims that didn’t pan out (or are very clearly not supported yet)
Anthropic CEO: “AI will be writing 90% of code in 3–6 months” (Mar 2025)
https://www.businessinsider.com/anthropic-ceo-ai-90-percent-code-3-to-6-months-2025-3
Independent check / skepticism (Oct 2025)
https://blog.redwoodresearch.org/p/is-90-of-code-at-anthropic-beingMeta / Zuckerberg: “AI will replace mid-level engineers by 2025” (reported Jan 2025)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/quickerbettertech/2025/01/26/business-tech-news-zuckerberg-says-ai-will-replace-mid-level-engineers-soon/Perplexity CEO: recruiters + executive assistants could be obsolete in as little as 6 months (Jul 2025)
https://www.fastcompany.com/91371621/perplexity-ceo-predicts-ai-could-replace-recruiters-and-assistants-in-as-little-as-six-months(Counter-signal to “AI is already transforming most firms”) NBER survey: most firms report little/no measurable impact on jobs/output so far (2026 coverage of NBER working paper)
https://m.economictimes.com/news/new-updates/despite-massive-ai-push-over-90-firms-see-no-impact-on-jobs-or-output-survey/amp_articleshow/128499539.cms
Claims that have come true (measurable adoption / policy / headcount moves)
Shopify CEO: teams must prove work can’t be done by AI before asking for more headcount/resources (Apr 2025)
https://techcrunch.com/2025/04/07/shopify-ceo-tells-teams-to-consider-using-ai-before-growing-headcount/
Primary source (Tobi’s post)
https://x.com/tobi/status/1909251946235437514?lang=enIBM: AI replaced hundreds of HR roles (May 2025)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ibm-ceo-says-ai-has-replaced-hundreds-of-workers-but-created-new-programming-sales-jobs-54ea6b58
Alternative coverage
https://www.shrm.org/topics-tools/flagships/ai-hi/ibm-embraces-ai--reduces-hr-rolesKlarna: AI assistant doing the work of ~700 agents (Feb–Mar 2024)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2024/03/04/klarnas-ai-assistant-is-doing-the-job-of-700-workers-company-says/
More detailed breakdown (Feb 2024)
https://www.hrdive.com/news/klarna-ai-replacing-workers/708971/
(Later nuance: Klarna also moved back toward more human support options)
https://www.customerexperiencedive.com/news/klarna-reinvests-human-talent-customer-service-AI-chatbot/747586/Gallup: workplace AI use is rising (daily + frequent usage figures)
https://www.gallup.com/699797/indicator-artificial-intelligence.aspx
https://www.gallup.com/workplace/701195/frequent-workplace-continued-rise.aspxIndeed Hiring Lab: “Jobs mentioning AI” hit 4.2% in Dec 2025 (Jan 2026 report)
https://www.hiringlab.org/2026/01/22/january-labor-market-update-jobs-mentioning-ai-are-growing-amid-broader-hiring-weakness/
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